Forecasters Update 2024 Hurricane Outlook- Now "Extremely Active"

Hurricane season has already begun and it proves to be nasty, evidenced by the rampage of Hurricane Beryl.

Now, forecasters with Colorado State University are upping the ante, warning of an extremely active season.

Learn more about what forecasters are saying and how you can take matters into your own hands- preparing now, before it's too late.

Updates to the forecast

Forecasters at Colorado State University predicting an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. 

The forecasts released their initial report on April 4, 2024 and updated it July 9.

This is caused by near record warm levels of sea surface temperatures across the hurricane development areas in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean.

Photo courtesy: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

"Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification," the report said.

Hurricane Beryl, a Category 5 hurricane also indicates a hyperactive season in 2024. 

According to the report, this forecast is of above-normal confidence and anticipates a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and Caribbean. 

Major Hurricane Probability- Coastal Areas

According to the forecast, here are the probabilities for at least one major (Category 3, 4, or 5) hurricane landfall on the following areas after July 8, 2024.

• Entire U.S. coastline- 57%
  • Full-season average from 1880-2020 was 43%
• U.S. East Coast including Florida Peninsula (south and east of Cedar Key, FL)- 31%
  • Full-season average from 1880-2020 was 21%
• Gulf Coast from Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, FL)- 38%
  • Full-season average from 1880-2020 was 27%

Major Hurricane Probability- Caribbean

CSU forecasters, predict this as the probability for at least one major (Category 3, 4, or 5) hurricane landfall in the Caribbean after July 8, 2024.  

• Caribbean- 62%
  • Full-season average from 1880-2020 was 47%

Named storm and hurricane probability

Colorado State University's forecast included named storm and hurricane probability for 2024. Here's a look at the probability of 4 states with a 50% or greater chance of a hurricane.

Preparing in advance

While you may have previously avoided the severe impacts of a hurricane, that doesn't mean that'll always be the case. 

It's crucial you prepare now so that if/when a storm hits, your family is ready and able to stay safe. To start, work as a family to put together a disaster supply kit.

According to FEMA, these are the items your kit should include:

• Water (1 gallon per person per day for several days, for drinking and sanitation)
• Food (at least a several-day supply of non-perishable food)
• Battery powered or hand crank emergency radio equipped with NOAA Weather Radio
• Flashlight
• First aid kit
• Extra batteries
• Whistle (to signal for help)
• Plastic sheeting, scissors and duct tape (to shelter in place)
• Moist towelettes, garbage bags and plastic ties (for personal sanitation)
• Wrench or pliers (to turn off utilities)
• Manual can opener (for food)
• Local maps
• Cell phone with chargers and a backup battery

ER50 Emergency Weather Alert Crank Radio

Before, during, and after a hurricane, you and the family will need to stay in the know. With Midland's ER50, that's never been easier and that's why this should be part of your emergency supply kit.

The ER50 comes equipped with NOAA Weather Radio. With this, you'll get the fastest, most accurate alerts and information about your area, straight from the National Weather Service. As we know, hurricanes can bring flooding, tornadoes, and more severe weather so with this information, you'll know what to expect and how to stay safe. While cell phones provide a lot of great information, towers and internet can become overwhelmed or destroyed during a storm. That's why having a radio with information is key.

The ER50 has multiple power sources that'll keep the household informed throughout the storm, especially if power is lost. This includes a solar panel, hand crank, and lithium-ion rechargeable battery. 

This emergency crank radio is great for hurricanes because of its compact size and flashlight with SOS strobe. This is great for navigating power outages, dark areas, and to signal for help if needed.